BOSTON (MarketWatch) — The last financial crisis isn’t over, but we might as well start getting ready for the next one.
Sorry to be gloomy, but there it is.
Why? Here are 10 reasons."
I agree with all those points. Totally. There are (as far as I can tell) no inaccuracies in this article.
The glaring omission is this: This time when the big boys take a bath? Americans are just gonna walk away and say, "Meh?".
All of the things in this article are the same that were said leading up to the giant commercial real estate bubble burst of 2010.
The 'What?' many will say.
'Exactly', I say.
While you and Sarah and many other people may be aware of this-almost nobody else cares and those guys aren't getting a bailout.-Instead, they are having to be creative and generous to potential clients or they lose, fold their corporations and walk away. And trust me, the IRS will punish them, they will be paying taxes on the peak value of their now defunct investments...
One of my friends just got done paying them off for the Tech-Bubble Crash. Even though his company tanked, they made him pay for peak valuation.
The reason I bring this up is that the Doomsayers used EXACTLY the same arguments laid out in this article a year ago predicting the end of the World when the commercial RE bubble burst....yet the economy has steadily grown at a rate nearly matching the same yearly average it has from 1980 to 2008.
Why?
Americans have gotten wise.
Many people on both sides see what is going on, and there is a growing realization that the economic crash was largely due to panic.
I talk to people every day about it-alot of people get that WE paniced and crashed the economy.
The panic was bad because a much higher percentage of the population has some stake in the Stock Market-but they see how it has rebounded and fears of a new Tech Bubble have been largely subdued by reality. Some IPOs are great, some not, and alot of startup VC is coming from folks who got killed in Tech Bubble v.1.0, so there is more sober thought going into this round of Venture Capitalism.
I look at Warren Buffet's, and the White House's projections at2012.
Buffet projects unemployment @ %8 and the White House advisors say they don't expect unemployment to be the issue it is now.
My thoughts on that are twofold:
1. The abysmal job numbers this week were due to uncertainty about:
a. Fuel prices
1. fuel price spikes have been acknowledged by the CEOs of
EXXON and Valero to be %30-40 speculation
2. the concerns about yet ANOTHER war
b. The budget ceiling and the retarded game of chicken being
played in Washington.
Obama has been too nice about many things. He didn't drop the regulatory hammer on speculation-he did, however, haul out the giant threat of 'flooding the market with cheap government crude oil' stick and waved it in the faces of the oil companies-which caused an immediate plunge in gas prices....
To put THAT into perspective: every cab driver in America that still drives an old police car for work (like me) just gained $1,000/yr in disposable income-imagine what trucking companies gained.
Just in time for summer driving season-and vacation time.
That extra cash will not be going to the Koch Brothers-it will be going to hotel rooms, ice cream cones, campsites and beaches (private AND public).
AND, as a result of the commercial RE crash:
There are so many new, local businesses that have sprung up just in Phoenix as a result that it is impossible to count. Entrepreneurs are putting commercial rentals in a vice to get their terms right so they can open new places. It is a renaissance in PHX right now...and estimates are we have lost $800million in economic activity because of SB1070.
I am NOT saying that the worst-case scenario won't happen, but I think many Americans over the age of 30 are starting to remember grandma's garden and the corner store. You could probably break the U.S. into 5 or 6 separate countries right now and it would all work its self out pretty quickly.....
Look at Detroit. It is supposed to be a dying city, but if I were 20 again, I would go there in a heartbeat to make my fortune.
I am not saying you shouldn't stockpile canned goods and maybe buy some silver coins, but I don't think Americans will tolerate a double dip recession. We could drop Iraq and Afghanistan like hot rocks right now, save half a trillion, and not have too much to worry about. Look at Vietnam: we 'lost' that war and 40 years later they are trying to be like us-Henry Rollins even broadcast his radio show from a street corner in Saigon last year.
And we have essentially 'won' if Iraq and Afghanistan.
It will be okay. It might get rough, but it will be okay.
The glaring omission is this: This time when the big boys take a bath? Americans are just gonna walk away and say, "Meh?".
All of the things in this article are the same that were said leading up to the giant commercial real estate bubble burst of 2010.
The 'What?' many will say.
'Exactly', I say.
While you and Sarah and many other people may be aware of this-almost nobody else cares and those guys aren't getting a bailout.-Instead, they are having to be creative and generous to potential clients or they lose, fold their corporations and walk away. And trust me, the IRS will punish them, they will be paying taxes on the peak value of their now defunct investments...
One of my friends just got done paying them off for the Tech-Bubble Crash. Even though his company tanked, they made him pay for peak valuation.
The reason I bring this up is that the Doomsayers used EXACTLY the same arguments laid out in this article a year ago predicting the end of the World when the commercial RE bubble burst....yet the economy has steadily grown at a rate nearly matching the same yearly average it has from 1980 to 2008.
Why?
Americans have gotten wise.
Many people on both sides see what is going on, and there is a growing realization that the economic crash was largely due to panic.
I talk to people every day about it-alot of people get that WE paniced and crashed the economy.
The panic was bad because a much higher percentage of the population has some stake in the Stock Market-but they see how it has rebounded and fears of a new Tech Bubble have been largely subdued by reality. Some IPOs are great, some not, and alot of startup VC is coming from folks who got killed in Tech Bubble v.1.0, so there is more sober thought going into this round of Venture Capitalism.
I look at Warren Buffet's, and the White House's projections at2012.
Buffet projects unemployment @ %8 and the White House advisors say they don't expect unemployment to be the issue it is now.
My thoughts on that are twofold:
1. The abysmal job numbers this week were due to uncertainty about:
a. Fuel prices
1. fuel price spikes have been acknowledged by the CEOs of
EXXON and Valero to be %30-40 speculation
2. the concerns about yet ANOTHER war
b. The budget ceiling and the retarded game of chicken being
played in Washington.
Obama has been too nice about many things. He didn't drop the regulatory hammer on speculation-he did, however, haul out the giant threat of 'flooding the market with cheap government crude oil' stick and waved it in the faces of the oil companies-which caused an immediate plunge in gas prices....
To put THAT into perspective: every cab driver in America that still drives an old police car for work (like me) just gained $1,000/yr in disposable income-imagine what trucking companies gained.
Just in time for summer driving season-and vacation time.
That extra cash will not be going to the Koch Brothers-it will be going to hotel rooms, ice cream cones, campsites and beaches (private AND public).
AND, as a result of the commercial RE crash:
There are so many new, local businesses that have sprung up just in Phoenix as a result that it is impossible to count. Entrepreneurs are putting commercial rentals in a vice to get their terms right so they can open new places. It is a renaissance in PHX right now...and estimates are we have lost $800million in economic activity because of SB1070.
I am NOT saying that the worst-case scenario won't happen, but I think many Americans over the age of 30 are starting to remember grandma's garden and the corner store. You could probably break the U.S. into 5 or 6 separate countries right now and it would all work its self out pretty quickly.....
Look at Detroit. It is supposed to be a dying city, but if I were 20 again, I would go there in a heartbeat to make my fortune.
I am not saying you shouldn't stockpile canned goods and maybe buy some silver coins, but I don't think Americans will tolerate a double dip recession. We could drop Iraq and Afghanistan like hot rocks right now, save half a trillion, and not have too much to worry about. Look at Vietnam: we 'lost' that war and 40 years later they are trying to be like us-Henry Rollins even broadcast his radio show from a street corner in Saigon last year.
And we have essentially 'won' if Iraq and Afghanistan.
It will be okay. It might get rough, but it will be okay.
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